Hi all
I hope everyone is healthy!
Question. I was looking at the 2020 and 2022 vintage population estimates
Annual Population Estimates, Estimated Components of Resident Population Change, and Rates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020 (NST-EST2020-alldata)www.census.gov/.../2010s-state-total.htmlandAnnual Population Estimates, Estimated Components of Resident Population Change, and Rates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, States, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2022 (NST-EST2022-ALLDATA)www.census.gov/.../2020s-state-total.html
And I noticed that the first year of each time period (2010-2020, and 2020-2022) seemed very different from the remaining years of the time period. Any help with why this is?
Not sure if this will come out in an email, but here are tables
Vintage 2020
Vintage 2022
Thanks
Hi Gene: looks like you might be seeing just the difference between, say, Census 2010 (April 2010) and the 2010 estimate (July 2010) They include that number which can be confusing —
It's how they've always done it (last two cycles, anyway). There is a base count as of Census Day (April 1), then estimates as of July 1 of every year. So in the first year, the estimate period is only…
COVID could certainly account for the change in international migration 2020-2021, as many countries closed or restricted borders.
That seems possible, but very odd. Except the vintage 2022 international migration for 2020 and 2021, unless the numbers really did drop that much, which I suppose might also be possible, because of COVID. But thanks.
It's how they've always done it (last two cycles, anyway). There is a base count as of Census Day (April 1), then estimates as of July 1 of every year. So in the first year, the estimate period is only 3 months.
If you want an estimate of births, deaths, etc. for e.g. 2019-2020, just use the last estimate from the previous cycle.
So for 2020, use the last row from the 2010 estimates cycle.
Look at your layout to be sure. This one for 2022 shows, for instance, BIRTHS2020 as “Births in period 4/1/2020 to 6/30/2020“ — the rest are annual
www2.census.gov/.../NST-EST2022-ALLDATA.pdf
Tim, Glenn, thanks. That explains it.