How useful are the 5-year Estimates, really?

Joshua Ellis over 4 years ago

Hey everyone!

So I've been quite familiar with using ACS data over the past few years, but recently I've become more of a data skeptic and wonder how I can reasonably consider using a dataset that took up to 5 years to collect. On the surface I was thinking "sure, if the data was collected in 2013, and it takes 5 years to give us the better account of the data, then while late, its still a bit useful"; but from there I questioned why the data is being represented as "2017" estimates.

It's a bit confusing, isn't it? At first I would have simply accepted it, but after thinking about it, I wondered if that should really be 2013 data. This would likely be the case if the 5 year collection was, as I mentioned before, a 5-year collection of data that belongs to 2013, but its probably not the case. The other conclusion would be that the collected data starting in 2013 through 2017 as a single period.

If I consider using the 2017 5-year estimates as periodic data that started in 2013, should that not in some way overlap with the 2016 5-year estimates, and 2015 estimates before that, etc.? Not to mention, there's likely a lot variation there that isn't being considered within those 5-years. When considering geography, which I tend to do, its possible we can look at various geographies with data more relevant to 2013 but are used to reflect 2017. Might beg the question which of the data is reasonably relevant for the question you're working with.

It matters because these estimates are used quite a lot, so just how useful are these estimates, really? What can one go assume when using 5-year estimates? While I can see a few usages here and there about using the data for Data Visualization and Descriptive Statistical purposes, there seems to be some major limitations that aren't being talked enough about.

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Patty Becker over 4 years ago

Sorry for coming late to this discussion - I was out of the country last week.

When I present 5 year data, I use the full 5 year label; e.g. 2013-17. I never present overlapping data sets. I might be using 2008-12 and 2013-17, but then would not use, e.g. 2012-16.

I smooth the data by presenting only whole percentages, no decimals, and rounding median income number to '00s. I think it's very important to avoid false precision. I never mix 1 year and 5 year data in one chart; if I have multiple geographies where some have 1 year data and some do not, I use 5 year data for all of them. I do not present MOEs to users, but pay attention to them myself.

This year I 've done a lot of work presenting data for small MCDs in the Detroit area, cities or townships of 10 to 30 thousand population. Much of it is comparative, looking at how much community A is similar to communities B, C, and D, while different from communities E, F, and G. Even with problematic MOEs, the data work for these purposes. If median household income is $50K in one community and $125 in another, MOEs are not a concern.

Hope this helps.
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Patty Becker over 4 years ago

Sorry for coming late to this discussion - I was out of the country last week.

When I present 5 year data, I use the full 5 year label; e.g. 2013-17. I never present overlapping data sets. I might be using 2008-12 and 2013-17, but then would not use, e.g. 2012-16.

I smooth the data by presenting only whole percentages, no decimals, and rounding median income number to '00s. I think it's very important to avoid false precision. I never mix 1 year and 5 year data in one chart; if I have multiple geographies where some have 1 year data and some do not, I use 5 year data for all of them. I do not present MOEs to users, but pay attention to them myself.

This year I 've done a lot of work presenting data for small MCDs in the Detroit area, cities or townships of 10 to 30 thousand population. Much of it is comparative, looking at how much community A is similar to communities B, C, and D, while different from communities E, F, and G. Even with problematic MOEs, the data work for these purposes. If median household income is $50K in one community and $125 in another, MOEs are not a concern.

Hope this helps.
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