Hello, first time poster here, interested in forecasting.
I am working with a city-sized population (~150k residents, ~30 tracts) in the San Francisco Bay Area, for which I can retrieve ACS population estimates by race/ethnicity (from B01003) for a couple of overlapping intervals (2011-2015, …, 2014-2018).
The proportions are fairly stable, but I’m more interested in the future — specifically, in 2021-2025 — than the past.
As an R user, I could try to adapt some generic forecasting tools, like those in Rob Hyndman's {fable} package, to generate estimates for the near future. But should I be guessing at which tools and approaches to use, or has someone already done a pretty robust job somewhere else that could be adapted or applied? (Note: not asking for R code, just recommendations for an approach.)
Methods that would generate predictive intervals, or at least some metric of uncertainty/confidence, would be ideal. All suggestions would be welcome! I'm hoping to be able to apply the same technique(s) to other city-sized regions in the future, even after Decennial counts become available.
Thank you in advance for your time and attention.
Very best, David
Hey David:
Interesting question! There are a few different techniques you could try -- one would be some sort of linear-based forecast model to predict total population (from pop estimates) and ACS-derived…
Hi David -
I second all of the recommendations above, but also wonder: Have you talked with ABAG about their projections? Do they not have what you need?
I do some California-specific forecasting work…
Hi Beth Jarosz, that is great advice. After you mentioned ABAG, I dug up some copies of tract-level ABAG forecasts. They’re vintage 2013 and aren't split by race/ethnicity. But I will definitely check totals…
I do some California-specific forecasting work, so I'm happy to discuss short-range projections data sources in more detail if you'd like. Email bjarosz (at) prb (dot) org
-Beth
Hi Beth Jarosz, that is great advice. After you mentioned ABAG, I dug up some copies of tract-level ABAG forecasts. They’re vintage 2013 and aren't split by race/ethnicity. But I will definitely check totals against them, or (maybe?) better yet, use them as input to a model. Following up with other folks in the Bay Area Regional Collaborative (BARC) is on my to-do list! The agency I work for (BAAQMD) is a member, and we had all been working in the same building pre-pandemic. I'd spoken a year or more ago with a helpful demographer at MTC and was going to reach out to him too.