Hi,
I would like to show the year-over-year change in population and net migration in a line graph/chart. My question is when it comes to the 2010 and 2020 total population do I use the estimate population or decennial population numbers? My guess, is I use the estimate numbers if I want to compare apples-to-apples based on the April or July estimates rather than using the decennial population numbers. I have three different population numbers for the state of Florida for 2020 (21,538,187 (April). 21,569,932 (July), and 21,733,312 (POPESTIMATE). I am confused on which number is the correct number to use.
I want to do a similar chart below for the state of Florida only for 2010 through 2021. Can anyone help shed some light on what is the best way to do this?
Thanks for any help you can provide me.
Robin
Hi Robin, I'm not familiar with these data sets, but in case it's helpful, IRS has some great tables that I use to analyze net out migration. I use both the historical tables and gross migration files
I think you want the evaluation estimates (anchored on the 2020 census results) and the components of change file available here: https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/research/evaluation-estimates/2020-evaluation-estimates/2010s-state-total.htmlUse the July 1 population estimates from 2010-2020 and then there are annual components of change calculated based on that date.For 2021, you'd use the current vintage 2021 state estimates and components of change here: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-state-total.html
Thank you to both Derek and Rebecca for all your help. Those links will definitely be used to help me with this project.
Robin,
As I mentioned to you before, when it comes to decennial Census and estimates, the decennial Census is recommended. For years between the Census, estimates are used. Since Florida Statutes (186.901 f.s.) requires population estimates of local governmental units as of April 1 of each year, BEBR estimates are recommended. In BEBR's annual estimates (Population Studies Program | BEBR (ufl.edu)), component of changes are provided. Let me know if you need data for other years. Monica
Have you seen Richelle Winker analysis of the impact of DP on Net Mirgration estimates. I would suggest that you also take a look at what the Estimate Division is doing with regard to the 2020 and 2021 estimates. Basically they are only using some of Census 2020 and are creating a blended base, instead of the usual Census Base.
Andy, are you referring to the analysis presented at last year's Applied Demography conference or newer material?
No I am referring to their webinar on the new estimate methods. They are more less ignoring much of the 2020 Census--
Delays to 2020 Census input data availability resulting from COVID-19 pandemic have introduced challenges for the production of our Vintage 2021 estimates--especially in terms of developing the April 1, 2020 base to build our estimates from. As a result, the Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program has developed a "blended base" which is 2010 Census-based and controlled to elements from the 2020 Census (and other sources) for the Vintage 2021 estimates. We invite you to learn more about the methodology of our "blended base" and other anticipated changes for Vintage 2021 and beyond.
A recording of the webinar is also available at the link above.
The Winkler paper assumes the usual methods. However, they have adapted to different methods. Since DP and the massive delays.